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    Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

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    StormNine
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  StormNine on Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:25 am

    Don't worry if this stuff dont verify you have May and June and then last days of this month. I dont know about this system could be a sleeper though could be another system to get hyped up about then have it bust you never know now a days. Or this coul end up being a 2% tornado, 15% hail, 15% wind outlook than banging.

    centralplainsstorm
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:09 am

    well the 12 UTC NAM showsa nice looking line gloing right through Chicago and right down the middle of Illinois...
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/fp0_072.shtml

    jdrenken
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  jdrenken on Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:39 pm

    centralplainsstorm wrote:well the 12 UTC NAM showsa nice looking line gloing right through Chicago and right down the middle of Illinois...
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/fp0_072.shtml

    I don't see severe weather at 7am though.

    Chicago Storm
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Chicago Storm on Tue Apr 15, 2008 4:50 pm

    jdrenken wrote:
    centralplainsstorm wrote:well the 12 UTC NAM showsa nice looking line gloing right through Chicago and right down the middle of Illinois...
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/fp0_072.shtml

    I don't see severe weather at 7am though.
    This will only be a see text or slight risk event across the Plains. By the time it heads toward Chicago the storms will begin to weake. Thus all that will be left is some rain, with isolated thunderstorms.

    Dominic
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Dominic on Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:30 am

    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_078l.gif

    Looking like a very wet rain-maker for Iowa, MO, KS, IL and WI. 500mb energy this run (00z GFS) looks furthur NW and stronger causing for a more northwesterly and stronger deformation band of rain back in Kansas, Iowa and Wisconsin. Looks lke 1-2 inches is possible from Kansas City to Des Moine, Cedar Rapids, Chicago, Madison and into MKE as this storm slowly lifts off to the NE. One of the components for a slower and stronger solution as this moves into MO and IL it looks to turn more neg tilted this run givven increase amount of moisture across these areas.

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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:22 am

    Any severe weather from this system will likely occur over southern stated including: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This looks to be only a sligth risk event for those states mentioned.

    Dominic
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Dominic on Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:18 pm

    Chicago Storm wrote:Any severe weather from this system will likely occur over southern stated including: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This looks to be only a sligth risk event for those states mentioned.

    Yeah nothing severe for Chicago. 12z GFS still showing a least a inch of rain out of this, more out west.

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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:22 pm

    Dominic wrote:
    Chicago Storm wrote:Any severe weather from this system will likely occur over southern stated including: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This looks to be only a sligth risk event for those states mentioned.

    Yeah nothing severe for Chicago. 12z GFS still showing a least a inch of rain out of this, more out west.
    Yea, also another thing to note is the system is moving a bit slower. The 00z models bring it just a tad more NW, but overall not an impressive storm.

    MattfromIndy
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  MattfromIndy on Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:32 am

    If there is one thing I have learned about this year it is this...... The way these dumb models have been and the way our supposed "experts" in the field have been, this could turn into a big outbreak lol..... afro

    centralplainsstorm
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:35 pm

    MattfromIndy wrote:If there is one thing I have learned about this year it is this...... The way these dumb models have been and the way our supposed "experts" in the field have been, this could turn into a big outbreak lol..... afro
    hahah a little while ago there were 3 severe thunderstorm warning s to central IA haha and im sitting at 77
    lol

    tornadoresearch15
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  tornadoresearch15 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:40 pm

    Kansas City has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning nearby. Too bad i'm not there Very Happy

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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Chicago Storm on Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:41 pm

    Alright, storms are developing in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Some are already severe, while other ones will turn severe. I will be posting frequently on here to keep things updated.

    centralplainsstorm
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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:49 pm

    ok well the storms in the KC area look to bypass IL
    it looks that they are moving NNE and not NE

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    Re: Apr. 17-18th Severe Weather Possibility

    Post  Chicago Storm on Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:30 pm

    6:30PM update: So far there are 17 reports of hail. Most reports have come out of Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. The first tornado warnings have been issued in Texas.

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